Zogby: McCain Takes Electoral College Lead!

Written by: Uncle Seth The Noble on Saturday, September 13th, 2008

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Newsmax has the details…

An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.

The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com.

In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.

See the Zogby map online to get Pollster John Zogby’s state-by-state commentary on this latest polling.

In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two states—Pennsylvania and New Mexico – both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.

Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to have—at least for now—captured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCain’s gains total 54 Electoral College votes. Based on a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends, the Zogby map is also moving four other states – Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, and North Dakota from toss-ups into the McCain column.

All of McCain’s gains come from moving toss-up states into his column—no states moved directly from Obama to McCain.

Zogby’s latest projections has John McCain taking a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania. If in fact this polling data is any where near accurate to the sentiments of the people of that state, than this race is over. Barack Obama cannot mathematically win this election without Pennsylvania as he already has been consistently trailing in Florida and Ohio. And even furthermore, it could be an indication that other tight states could be in jeopardy for the Democratic nominee. Since the Sarah Palin choice for VP, McCain has been able to solidify traditional GOP stronghold states that Barack Obama just a few weeks ago was challenging to take. We must be cautious about these polling numbers because the election is still some 6 weeks away, but if this current trend continues even traditional Democratic Party strongholds could be in Jeopardy. At last look Rasmussen had John McCain within 2 points in the state of Washington and Marist had McCain within 3 points in the state of New Jersey. I’m not willing to go out on a limb and start to declare the possibility of a McCain landslide victory in November, but things are looking bad for Obama indeed.

UPDATE: The state of Minnesota is all tied up at 45, Obama will now have to divert more money that he could have used in other battleground states.

UPDATE II: Rasmussen has McCain hitting the 50% mark for the first time ever in his 3 day tracking poll. 

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Topics: Election 2008, Poll

2 Responses to “Zogby: McCain Takes Electoral College Lead!”

susan Says:
September 15th, 2008 at 11:41 am

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Evrviglnt Says:
September 15th, 2008 at 6:48 pm

So nothing changes if we get rid of the electoral college – politicians will just visit the states that are the most populous, and run commercials everywhere else. Wouldn’t that be the consequence of eliminating any reason a candidate would care what they think in Colorado or Illinois?

I’ll continue to oppose the movement to scrap the electoral system because to me, legislating alienation is an action we can never take back. Likewise, the thought of having California, Florida and New York deciding the election every four years means the character of this country changes drastically – in the guise of democracy.

 

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